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IEA: Oil 2024 Report

by Madaline Dunn

Oil 2024, the latest edition of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) annual medium-term market report, forecasts that global oil demand will peak by 2029 and begin to contract the following year.

Indeed, the report forecasts that demand will plateau at 105.6 mb/d by 2029, with total supply capacity rising to nearly 114 million barrels a day by 2030.

This puts the total supply capacity at 8 million barrels per day above the projected global demand.

It outlines that despite a slowdown in growth, without stronger policy measures, global oil demand is still forecast to be 3.2 million barrels per day higher in 2030 than in 2023.

Growth will be dominated by Asian economies, it says, alongside an increased use of jet fuel and feedstocks from the petrochemical sector.

The report notes that producers outside of OPEC+ are leading the expansion of global production capacity to meet this anticipated demand, accounting for three-quarters of the expected increase to 2030.

The Oil 2024 report also notes that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Iraq lead a 1.4 mb/d rise in OPEC+ oil capacity as African and Asian members post declines.

Further, it highlights that both the UAE and Iraq are raising crude oil capacity while Saudi Arabia is poised for a significant increase in NGL and condensates supply.

Read the full report here.

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