As the climate crisis intensifies and climate inaction abounds, ESG Mena takes a look at what’s on the horizon for COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan.
The 29th Conference of the Parties, COP29, has begun today in Azerbaijan, and it’s expected to last until 22 November.
Between 40,000 and 50,000 delegates are set to convene in the petrostate this month as the climate crisis rages on and in the shadow of significant controversy surrounding the country.
Already one of the world’s most fossil fuel-dependent countries, Azerbaijan’s climate action plan has been deemed “critically insufficient,” and it now has its sights set on aggressive fossil fuel expansion.
According to a recent report on SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state-owned oil and gas company spent at least 97 percent of its capital expenditure on oil and gas in 2023, and the country is geared up to boost its gas production by a third over the next decade.
“Given SOCAR’s pivotal role in Azerbaijan’s economy and its close ties to the country’s political elite, its influence will surely be felt throughout the climate negotiations in Baku this November,” said Regine Richter, Energy Campaigner at Urgewald and lead author of the report.
Adding: “Looking at the state company’s expansion plans, international partnerships and geopolitical ties, as we prepare for COP29, we cannot but ask ourselves: Did we put the fox in charge of the henhouse?”
Against this backdrop, ESG Mena looks at what you can expect from the November climate summit.
Finance to Dominate
Finance is set to dominate the agenda at this year’s COP. Dubbed by some the ‘Finance COP,” the climate summit comes ahead of the February 2025 deadline for the New Collective Quantified Goal.
Estimates are that trillions of dollars are required to assist developing nations in fighting against the climate crisis, and the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) is set to channel finance into the money pot.
The previous commitment, set in 2009, sat at $100 billion, which is far from the amount required by developing nations and a commitment that missed its 2020 deadline.
However, the NCQG is highly contentious, and nations remain divided on the terms and details. Agreement is yet to be made on everything from how much it will contain and who will receive it to the form the funds will take.
Almost 70 percent of climate finance is currently provided through loans.
This is despite high levels of debt distress in the most climate-vulnerable countries. Indeed, last year, research from ActionAid International found that 93 percent of countries on the frontlines of climate disaster are either currently in or at significant risk of debt distress.
Discussions also emphasize mobilising private finance. No firm number has yet been put forward by a developed country.
Focus will also be directed to the Loss and Damages Fund, launched during COP28. Baku is expected to assess the fund’s progress and operationalisation. The funds have not yet been distributed.
Fossil Fuel Phaseout and the Energy Transition
Last year’s COP also witnessed a pledge to transition away from fossil fuels—and while falling short of calling for a phaseout, it was the first time in 28 years that a climate summit had included such wording.
Alongside this was a commitment to triple renewable energy and double energy efficiency by
2030. Recent reviews of the targets have found that the world is far off-track on both, while oil and gas expansion is ramping up.
How much progress will be made on the energy transition at this year’s climate summit is in doubt.
Indeed, a new report by Transparency International (TI) and the Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) has warned that the summit is at “high risk” of being co-opted to promote a pro-fossil
fuel industry agenda.
Brice Böhmer, Climate and Environment Lead at Transparency International, called out what he said is an “unacceptable lack of robust integrity and anti-corruption measures” at COP.
From influential fossil fuel lobbyists diluting climate commitments to corrupt networks siphoning climate funds, the integrity of the entire global climate framework is at stake.
Such criticisms have resulted in Papua New Guinea announcing its withdrawal from this year’s climate summit.
“Papua New Guinea is making this stand for the benefit of all small island nations. We will no longer tolerate empty promises and inaction while our people suffer the devastating consequences of climate change,” said Foreign Affairs Minister Justin Tkatchenko.
Tkatchenko called the pledges made by “major polluters” nothing more than “empty talk.”
“They impose impossible barriers for us to access the crucial funds we need to protect our people. Despite continuous attempts, we have not received a single toea in support to date,” said Tkatchenko.
NDCs
The next round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) will be key to turning energy transition goals into reality.
The NDCs are national climate action plans submitted by countries every five years under the Paris Agreement.
Due in early 2025, NDCs 3.0 will outline countries’ climate action plans up to 2035 and are considered essential for keeping 1.5 °C within reach.
However, a recent report from the UN finds that cuts of 42 per cent are needed by 2030 and 57 per cent by 2035 to get the world on track for 1.5°C.
Current policies put the world on course for between 2.6 °C and 3.1 °C global warming this century, the report warns.
The COP Troika (the UAE, Azerbaijan and Brazi) are expected to unveil their NDCs at COP29, having pledged to submit a 1.5°C-aligned NDC, with early submissions expected from some countries.
Back in September, the COP29 host also launched the Baku Global Climate Transparency Platform to provide developing countries with support for the preparation and submission of the Biennial Transparency Reports, which document progress on climate action.
Other Issues at the fore
Another key issue expected to be addressed at COP29 is the much-debated Article 6, which relates to the carbon markets and emissions trading. The climate summit in Dubai last year failed to produce an outcome, so the pressure is on in Baku.
Last year, food was said to be on the table for the first time, with the link between food systems and emissions underlined. Indeed, experts warn that reaching climate goals will be impossible without food systems transformation. However, little tangible progress was made in Dubai.
This year, the summit will feature a Food, Agriculture, and Water Day, with an Action on Food Hub, the COP29 Declaration on Reducing Methane from Organic Waste, and the Harmoniya Initiative.
The summit is also taking place against the backdrop of the contentious US election, a tense geopolitical situation and deep divisions globally, placing a big question mark over the likelihood of international cooperation and collaboration required to scale up climate action.
COP29 is taking place in Baku, Azerbaijan, from 11-22 November. ESG Mena will be on the ground providing coverage.