Governments across the world are setting ambitious targets for reducing carbon emissions, including administrations across the MENA region.
In the UAE, the target has been revised upwards three times in the past seven years, with the latest goal translating into an absolute emission avoidance of 93.2 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2030. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, aims to cut carbon emissions by more than 278 million tonnes per year by 2030.
Egypt, host of COP 27, revised its carbon reduction targets this year, but has not set an economy-wide target. Instead, the government has set quantified emission goals for the oil and gas, electricity generation and transport sectors.
Increasing the use of renewables in the energy mix is widely viewed as an essential strategy for decarbonisation, despite the long-running heavy reliance on fossil fuels across the MENA region, particularly for power generation and transportation. Egypt is aiming for an energy mix with at least 40 percent renewables by 2030. The UAE is aiming for 30 percent clean energy by 2030 and 75 percent by 2050. Saudi Arabia has set an even more ambitious target of eliminating oil from power production by 2030.
However, across the world, multiple factors may have an impact on reaching climate targets, particularly when significant investment is required in renewable energy projects. These include rising inflation, slower-than-expected economic growth after the restrictions of Covid-19 lockdowns, the economic impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict, and supply chains focused on speed and low costs rather than carbon reduction.
The MENA region is not immune from these challenges. In February 2022, the Middle East Institute (MEI) held a webinar on the MENA climate policy outlook in which Vahakn Kabakian, climate change advisor and portfolio manager, United Nations Development Programme, cited the example of Lebanon’s economic crisis and the resultant energy shortages.
Kabakian says that Lebanon imports 95 percent of its resources for electricity generation and one of the solutions for a greener post-Covid recovery is to focus more on renewables. The country has a target of 30 percent renewables by 2030, but in the meantime, Jordan has sent 250 MW of electricity to the Lebanese grid via neighbouring Syria in a US$200 million project funded by the World Bank. While this is an effective short-term measure to alleviate crippling energy shortages, Kabakian says that in Lebanon, integrating the grid with neighbours could be a way to increase investment in renewables.
In the UAE, solar and nuclear power are expected to play growing roles in the country’s move away from fossil fuels. Attaurrahman Ojindaram Saibasan, senior power analyst at GlobalData, says the largest source of clean energy opportunities in the UAE are expected to emerge from solar.
“Conditions in the UAE are ideal for solar power generation, and the government is assigning large swathes of barren land for solar parks – both photovoltaic and concentrated solar power – which will help satisfy local demand as well as meet export requirements,” says Saibasan. “The country has several support mechanisms such as smart Dubai initiatives, net metering, and auctions. [The renewable energy] targets are expected to aid the rapid deployment of renewable power plants in the country.”
On 8 October, Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation (ENEC) announced the successful connection of Unit 3 of the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant. This is the third of four units to come online, adding another 1,400 MW of capacity to the UAE national grid, with ENEC leadership having high hopes for the plant’s role in zero-carbon energy production.
Mohamed Ibrahim Al Hammadi, managing director and CEO of ENEC, says the UAE’s leadership has made “data-driven decisions” to allow Barakah to “spearhead domestic energy security and sustainability in parallel at the time of a global energy crisis.”
Like the UAE, solar is an obvious opportunity for clean energy investment in Saudi Arabia, but ambitions for wind power have great potential too. In August 2021, Saudi Arabia’s first wind farm was connected to the grid. The project consists of 99 wind turbines, each with a capacity of 4.2 MW.
According to analysis by Mordor Intelligence, the Saudi renewable energy market is expected to report a compound annual growth rate of more than 13 percent between now and 2027, with the Covid-19 pandemic having only a “limited impact on renewable energy sources compared to fossil fuels.” The lack of a domestic renewable energy generation company has created investment opportunities for China and Europe, particularly in solar energy.
Saudi Arabia, along with Egypt and Morocco, will each add more than a gigawatt of wind power to their energy mixes by 2026, according to the Global Wind Energy Council.
Beyond its own borders, Saudi Arabian money has found its way to Egypt’s renewable energy sector with ACWA Power’s investment in a Gulf of Suez project that is slated to provide 1.1 GW of wind power. In a statement, Riyadh-based ACWA said this plant, commissioned under an agreement with the Egyptian government, will provide electricity to more than 1 million homes.
Kashif Rana, CFO for ACWA Power, remains optimistic about the future of sustainable energy in the region, but acknowledges the obstacles: “While higher costs and supply chain challenges persist and create pressure over our EPC partners, we do recognise the need for a sustainable and more permanent solution to mitigate these stresses.”
In Israel, wave energy is in its early stages of development, but is looking promising with the Eco Wave Power project at the Port of Jaffa in Tel Aviv now undergoing test runs in real conditions. The next phase will include grid connection by the Israeli Electric Company. While still heavily reliant on fossil fuels for energy, Israel has set a target of 30 percent renewables by 2030. Currently, solar leads the renewables, providing six percent of Israel’s energy needs.
“We are pleased with the results of our very first real-conditions test run,” said David Leb, founder and board member of Eco Wave Power. “We are looking forward to the completion of the grid connection works by the Israeli Electric Company, which will enable us to start providing clean, renewable electricity to Israel’s national grid through the power of the waves.” According to analysis by IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency) in the World Energy Transitions Outlook, the region overall could obtain almost 26 percent of its total primary energy supply from renewables by 2050, and up to 53 per cent in the power sector. IRENA estimates that meeting this target would result in a carbon dioxide emissions reduction equivalent to 1.1 gigatonnes per year.