In the last few years, there’s been a lot of buzz about green hydrogen. For some, it’s the wonder fuel and the answer to the decarbonisation conundrum; to others, it’s a pipe dream that’s been massively overhyped. Regardless of where the truth lies, governments worldwide are beginning to shape their hydrogen strategies, positioning it front and centre of net-zero plans and pushing ahead with financial support.
The Mena, in particular, is pegged to have a key role in shaping the world’s global green hydrogen market. In January, the World Future Energy Summit’s report identified the Middle East as primed to lead the charge; Egypt, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and Oman, specifically, have been identified as the four main players. Indeed, countries in the MENA are well-positioned due to their renewable energy potential and land availability, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Israel, Oman, Morocco, and Egypt projected to account for 85 per cent of renewable capacity growth in the region between 2022 and 2027.
So, what exactly is green hydrogen? It’s derived from water electrolysis using renewable electricity, and unlike blue and grey hydrogen, it doesn’t rely on fossil fuels and produces zero emissions (when done right). Currently, it’s responsible for less than 1% of the total hydrogen produced worldwide.
However, it’s still a nascent technology, and there are concerns regarding its scalability, efficiency, economic viability and safety.
Can hydrogen fuel the automotive sector?
Decarbonising transport is a central focus of most global net-zero strategies, after all, it has the highest reliance on fossil fuels when compared to other sectors. It currently contributes 37% of CO2 emissions, and projections are that this will grow almost 20% by 2050.
Electric Vehicles (EVs) are currently being pegged as the solution here, especially considering the phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles has already begun. However, EVs are not without their challenges. Range, charging time and infrastructure are the three main barriers to wide-scale adoption. This is where green hydrogen comes in. Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are capable of producing electricity on board, meaning drivers aren’t burdened with long charging times or range anxiety.
However, the challenges around FCEVs dwarf EV charging issues. First and foremost, it’s currently an inefficient way to fuel a car, with high energy losses, and therefore costly; for every kW of electricity supply, you get only 380W for an FCV, which is less than half as much as a BEV. Alongside this, there is also currently a severe lack of global infrastructure to distribute the fuel, and a lot of safety concerns. However, just because green hydrogen isn’t necessarily the solution for personal vehicles, that doesn’t mean that it doesn’t have applications in the transport sector.
“In terms of mobility, we are seeing different paths for specific vehicle types,” explained automotive executive Alex Malouf. “For your typical consumer vehicle, the way forward is most likely electric given the uptake of EVs globally and the creation of charger networks.” For commercial vehicles, such as heavy-duty trucks, buses and coaches, it is more likely that we use hydrogen. What is clear is that in many countries around the world, combustion vehicles will be phased out over the coming decade or two. The future is most likely both electric and hydrogen.”
Will hydrogen take flight in aviation?
Decarbonising aviation is an increasing priority in global net-zero commitments, but it’s one of the harder-to-abate sectors. Right now, Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) are pegged as the front-runner in the race to decarbonise the sector; however, green hydrogen has a part to play here, too. And it’s not difficult to understand why there’s so much hype.
Estimates are that hydrogen could reduce the climate impact of flights by up to 75%; it’s also three to four times lighter than jet fuel, and contains around 200 times more energy than current lithium-ion batteries. Crucially, it also has the highest potential of providing zero carbon emission flights, as when produced with renewables, the only byproduct is water vapour. Moreover, green hydrogen can be used to make e-SAF, and due to it being chemically identical to current fuels, it could be dropped into existing planes with little or no redesign.
Indeed, predictions from climate think-tank Energy Transition Commission (ETC) are that by 2050, hydrogen fuel could obtain a 32% share of the market but must enter by 2035 to achieve this.
So, what’s the issue? Leonard Favre, Managing Partner at 1BlueHorizon Management Consulting explains. “The aviation industry has been exploring two potential ways hydrogen can be used as a power source for aircraft propulsion for some time. Despite some clearly optimistic statements and outlooks presented by aviation stakeholders such as Airbus to develop the world’s first hydrogen-powered commercial aircraft by 2035, one should keep in mind that there are still some major technological hurdles to overcome prior to make it viable.”
Favre outlined that, first and foremost, hydrogen has a lower volumetric density than fuel. “So, using hydrogen would actually require four to five times the volume of any conventional fuel to carry the same onboard energy. Massive tanks would then be necessary,” explained Favre. Adding: “Moreover, hydrogen must be cooled down to -253 ºC to be usable in its liquid form, hence leading to additional costs, like the technical challenge linked to the chilling of hydrogen… Now, bearing in mind that commercial aviation has had 70 years worth of using jet fuel safely, how long would it take now to reach the same level of safety with hydrogen?”
“The 2035 target is virtually at everyone’s doorstep. How about the various certifications processes and Sustainable Aviation Fuel’s (SAF) less disruptive advantage?” He added.
Hydrogen projects on the rise
With the MENA’s vast solar potential and increased focus on diversifying the region’s energy mix, it’s set to become a green hydrogen hub over the next few years. Predictions are that the region will become the world’s second-largest electrolyser installer by 2040.
Globally, total investments in hydrogen are set to reach $300 billion through 2030, but MENA players will contribute a significant portion of this. Abu Dhabi-based renewable energy business Masdar has shared investment plans worth $5 billion in the country’s green hydrogen industry. Meanwhile, UAE utility Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) and Siemens Energy have teamed up for green hydrogen projects. In Saudi Arabia’s region of NEOM, Neom Green Hydrogen Company (NGHC) also recently secured $8.4 billion (€7.7 billion) for the world’s largest green hydrogen production facility.
Alongside electrolytic green H2, in the MENA, more projects focused on H2 production from municipal solid waste (MSW) are beginning to appear. Currently, waste-to-hydrogen projects are deemed cheaper than green H2 produced from renewables; they don’t require the space or infrastructure that solar panels and wind turbines do, and some commentators believe renewables should be left for EVs. Proponents say that it solves three issues: it uses non-recyclable waste, reduces CO2 emissions and, due to global high waste availability, can be deployed on a large scale.
Back in 2021, Sharjah’s Bee’ah announced its plans to develop the first-ever waste-to-hydrogen project in the Sultanate of Oman with an investment of around $1.4 billion, and other such projects are now emerging. Those in the industry say that when coupled with carbon capture technology, ‘carbon negative’ green hydrogen can be produced, but not everyone agrees.
While often advertised as ‘green,’ organisations like the Global Alliance for Incinerator Alternatives categorise it as ‘red.’ Indeed, both waste-to-energy incineration and waste gasification/pyrolysis have high GHG footprints and low material and energy efficiency. Considering this, it shares similar issues with blue hydrogen derived from fossil fuels, which some have labelled as a greenwashing tactic by big oil.
Overhyped and under-researched?
Despite governments and the private sector ramping up investment, there remain a lot of unanswered questions about green hydrogen. For example, scientists have identified a data gap on leaks and warned that if just 10 per cent of leaks occurred during production, transport or storage, green hydrogen’s climatic impact would be eradicated. Further, it’s energy-intensive and costly, between three and six times more expensive to produce than grey or blue hydrogen.
Another key issue is that the hydrogen’s key off-takers have not yet been identified, and indeed, IRENA has highlighted the dangers of green hydrogen’s extensive use, warning that “indiscriminate use” of hydrogen could actually slow down the energy transition. This is why clear and robust policy on how and when it should be made and used is essential.
Moreover, while commentators suggest that economies of scale will facilitate price parity with grey hydrogen, it’s also clear that more government subsidy is required for economic viability in the short and medium term. However, the risks associated with it need to be better understood and mitigated, instead of continuing forward in blind faith.