CERAWeek by S&P Global, widely regarded as the premier global energy conference, is traditionally a forum for discussions on energy security, market trends, and technological advancements. However, with the Middle East at the heart of both the global energy supply and geopolitical volatility, regional developments have inevitably become a focal point this year.
From the shifting balance of power in the wake of the Gaza war and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria to the realignment of US alliances and the rise of middle powers like Saudi Arabia and Turkiye, the strategic importance of the region has rarely been more pronounced.
Against the wider theme of “A fragmenting political order,” yesterday’s panel at CERAWeek delved into “The Future of the Middle East,” with implications for global energy markets, and the potential pathways for stability in the region being discussed.
Regional Geopolitical Shifts
Moderator Roger Diwan opened the discussion by painting a picture of the current Middle Eastern landscape. “The war in Gaza has been ongoing for 16 months, with a ceasefire that appears fragile. In Syria, we’ve witnessed the fall of the Assad regime after 50 years, fundamentally altering regional politics,” he noted. The conversation explored how these changes have created vacuums, particularly in Lebanon and Syria, while also shifting the balance of power away from Iran’s regional proxies.
Suzanne Maloney, Vice President at Brookings, weighed in on Iran’s declining influence:
“A year ago, Iran could claim control over four Arab capitals—Beirut, Damascus, Baghdad and Sanaa. Today, at least two of those are no longer fully under Iranian sway. The loss of Damascus and Hezbollah’s weakened state in Lebanon marks a significant shift.”
The Role of Middle Powers
The discussion emphasized the rising role of Gulf countries, Turkiye, and Israel in regional affairs. Meghan O’Sullivan, Director at the Belfer Center, pointed to the emergence of middle powers:
“What we see today is the growing assertion of regional states like Saudi Arabia and Turkiye. They are no longer content to sit on the sidelines—they are actively shaping the region’s future.”
Diwan noted that Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are increasingly playing mediation roles on the global stage, including in Ukraine-related discussions. Maloney added, “Saudi Arabia has elevated itself beyond a mere regional middle power. We’re seeing its influence in areas far beyond the Middle East, from energy markets to global diplomacy.”
Energy Market Uncertainties
Fluctuating oil prices and China’s economic shifts were also central to the conversation. “There is turmoil in the oil market right now,” Diwan stated. “Prices have been sliding, new alliances are forming, and China’s declining demand will have long-term impacts on the region’s energy dominance.”
O’Sullivan stressed the importance of Saudi-US cooperation:
“President Trump has made it clear that lowering oil prices is a priority. This means we’re likely to see closer coordination with Riyadh on production decisions, even as the Gulf states seek to diversify their economies.”
The Future of Israel’s Regional Integration
Israel’s evolving regional role was also debated. Maloney highlighted how 7 October and its aftermath reshaped Tel Aviv’s security priorities: “For the first time, Iran directly attacked Israel, launching hundreds of drones and missiles. This triggered an unprecedented defence cooperation between Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the US.”
She pointed to normalization talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia as a crucial development. “Despite the war, the Abraham Accords and Saudi-Israel normalisation remain on the table. However, for Saudi Arabia, any agreement requires a credible pathway to Palestinian sovereignty—something Netanyahu’s coalition has resisted.”
US Policy and Regional Dynamics
The panel also examined Washington’s evolving role in the Middle East. O’Sullivan noted that the Trump administration is reshaping alliances:
“Unlike previous US administrations, this White House is doubling down on strategic partnerships in the Gulf, particularly with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, while encouraging regional players to take the lead on security.”
When asked about Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Maloney cautioned, “There’s no viable diplomatic pathway at the moment, and Iran is closer than ever to nuclear weapons capability. But is military action on the table? Unlikely—Trump has consistently opposed new Middle Eastern wars.”
O’Sullivan, however, pointed out that if Iran accelerates its nuclear program, the US might reconsider: “A military response isn’t Washington’s preferred option, but if Iran crosses the nuclear threshold, the calculus could change.”
The discussion made clear that the Middle East remains a region in flux, with major shifts underway in politics, security, and energy. While there are deep-seated challenges, the panelists also pointed to areas where new opportunities are emerging.
As Maloney put it, “It’s difficult to be optimistic, but there are opportunities emerging—if the region’s leaders are willing to seize them.”
Speakers:
- Roger Diwan, Vice President, S&P Global Commodity Insights
- Meghan O’Sullivan, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
- Suzanne Maloney, Vice President & Director of the Foreign Policy Program, The Brookings Institution