New York is set to ban the use of toxic chemicals in the manufacturing of clothing by the end of the year, according to US media reports.
The law, signed by New York Governor Kathy Hochul, sees the ban of perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in apparel and will come into force on December 31, 2023.
Commonly known as “forever chemicals” due to their persistence, PFAS is associated with increased risk of kidney cancer, testicular cancer and other diseases.
Environmental organisations and advocates have been calling for a ban on PFAS chemicals, which are hard to degrade in the natural environment and found in an array of consumer products.
With the decision, New York will be joining California in banning “forever chemicals” from clothing.
Environmental activists have welcomed the strong action by both California and New York to phase out “forever chemicals” in the manufacturing of clothes.
climate change
Xylem, the leading water technology company committed to solving the most challenging water problems around the world, has announced the opening of its new USD 1.2 million service centre, state-of-the-art analytics lab and rental hub in the UAE — strengthening its position in the Middle East to better address the region’s water-related challenges.
Located in Jebel Ali Free Zone, the new facility will span over 10,000 square meters and will feature a wash bay, lifting and handling cranes and tooling, trimming and balancing machines, original spare parts, testing benches, a painting booth, programming and calibrating equipment and devices.
This move will enable Xylem to respond to any customer needs faster and provide tailor-made solutions such as real-time interventions by experts — 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. The service hub currently employs more than 16 staff, including engineers and technicians and is set to create 300 employment opportunities.
Speaking on the latest innovations from Xylem, Naji Skaf, Managing Director of Xylem Middle East and Turkey, said: “With this expansion, we seek to solidify our position in the Middle East region and provide a slew of benefits including quicker turnaround, greater convenience and access to our customers. Our new centre of excellence is poised to bring about a gamut of opportunities for us that will support and accelerate our growth.”
The development of the facility is in line with Xylem’s commitment to resolving key challenges and illustrates the company’s commitment to bringing together advanced technologies, application expertise, and smart sustainable solutions to customers in the Middle East region — where there are significant issues pertaining to the management of water and wastewater.
ADNOC, a reliable and responsible provider of lower-carbon intensity energy, has announced a bold new strategy to progress the world-scale decarbonisation of its operations.
The announcement follows the guidance by ADNOC’s Board of Directors in November 2022 to accelerate delivery of its low-carbon growth strategy and the approval of its Net Zero by 2050 ambition. This builds on ADNOC’s strong track record as a leading lower-carbon intensity energy producer, which includes its use of zero carbon grid power, a commitment to zero flaring as part of routine operations and deployment of the region’s first carbon capture project at-scale.
Acting on the board’s guidance, ADNOC has allocated $15 billion (AED55 billion) to advance an array of projects across its diversified value chain by 2030. These projects will include investments in clean power, carbon capture and storage (CCS), further electrification of its operations, energy efficiency and new measures to build on ADNOC’s long-standing policy of zero routine gas flaring. ADNOC will apply a rigorous commercial and sustainability assessment to ensure that each project delivers lasting tangible impact.
Throughout 2023, a suite of new projects and initiatives will be announced, including a first-of-its-kind CCS project, innovative carbon removal technologies, investment in new, cleaner energy solutions and strengthening of international partnerships. Together with the recent formation of the ADNOC’s new Low Carbon Solutions and International Growth Directorate, these represent tangible and concrete action as the company reduces its carbon intensity by 25 percent by 2030 and moves towards its Net Zero by 2050 ambition.
His Excellency Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and ADNOC Managing Director and Group CEO, said: “Under the directives of the UAE’s wise leadership and the ADNOC Board of Directors, ADNOC continues to take significant steps to make today’s energy cleaner while investing in the clean energies and new technologies of tomorrow. Now, more than ever, the world needs a practical and responsible approach to the energy transition that is both pro-growth and pro-climate, and ADNOC is delivering tangible actions in support of both these goals.
“Cementing our strong track record of responsible and reliable energy production, ADNOC will fast-track significant investments into landmark clean energy, low-carbon and decarbonisation technology projects. As we continue to future-proof our business, we invite technology and industry leaders to partner with us, to collectively drive real and meaningful action that embraces the energy transition. This strategic, multi-billion-dollar initiative underscores ADNOC’s industry leadership as a leading global provider of lower-carbon energy.”
Building on ADNOC’s Al Reyadah facility, which has the capacity to capture up to 800,000 tons of CO2 per year, the company will announce plans to deploy technologies to capture, store and absorb CO2 by leveraging the UAE’s geological properties while preparing for its next major investment to capture emissions from its Habshan gas processing facility. Combined with ADNOC’s planned expansion of its carbon capture capacity to 5 million tons per annum (mtpa) by 2030, the UAE will be firmly established as a worldwide hub for carbon capture expertise and innovation.
ADNOC’s expansion of CCS is planned to support the significant scale-up of hydrogen and lower-carbon ammonia production capabilities in Abu Dhabi as ADNOC advances a world-scale 1 million tons per annum (mtpa) blue ammonia production facility at TA’ZIZ, the industrial services and logistics ecosystem that is enabling the expansion of the Al Ruways Industrial City, as well as Abu Dhabi’s wider chemicals, manufacturing and industrial sectors. To date, ADNOC has already delivered test cargoes of low-carbon ammonia to Europe and Asia.
ADNOC’s expansion of its new energy portfolio will largely be delivered through its stake in Masdar, the UAE’s clean energy powerhouse with over 20 gigawatts (GW) of clean energy today and plans to increase its capacity to 100 GW by 2030. Masdar is also spearheading the UAE’s drive to develop a leading position in green hydrogen.
Since January 2022, ADNOC has received 100 percent of its grid power supply from Emirates Water and Electricity Company’s (EWEC) nuclear and solar energy sources, making it the first major company in the industry to decarbonise its power at scale through a clean power agreement of this kind.
ADNOC also concluded a $3.8 billion deal to build a first-of-its-kind, sub-sea transmission network in the MENA region, connecting ADNOC’s offshore operations to the onshore power network, with the potential to reduce ADNOC’s offshore carbon footprint by up to 50 percent.
Building on the multi-billion capital investment in decarbonisation projects, ADNOC is working closely with its international partners and stakeholders across the energy value chain to collaborate on technology, best practices and policy to support and drive global decarbonisation efforts.
Ducab Group supplies sustainable energy solutions to Gulf of Suez project in Egypt
Ducab Group—one of the UAE’s largest industrial manufacturing businesses—is supplying 633 kilometres of medium voltage and earthing cable to a new Egyptian 70-turbine windfarm.
The Gulf of Suez project, for Egypt’s New and Renewable Energy Authority will play a key role in the country’s commitment to generate 42 percent of all electricity from renewable energy by 2035 and save around a 600,000 tonnes of CO2 every year.
The move will further reinforce the strong industrial partnership between the UAE and Egypt, according to WAM news agency.
One of the largest developed utility scale wind power plants in Egypt, the project will contribute 250MW of renewable energy generation to the country’s energy mix from the 70 turbines being installed in an area of 57 Km2.
For the project, Ducab has partnered with Vestas, EPC contractor and supplier of the 70 wind turbines.
“We are committed to supporting countries achieve their sustainability ambitions and our solutions are in high demand for solar and wind power projects around the world,” Group CEO of Ducab, Mohammed Almutawa, said.
“Ducab already supplies solutions to landmark renewable energy infrastructure in 55 countries, but we are proud that demand for our expertise, experience and quality solutions is experiencing significant growth as more and more countries, such as Egypt, decarbonise and transition to renewables,” he added.
In addition to the Gulf of Suez windfarm, Ducab has provided solutions for a wide range of milestone renewable energy projects in the Middle East including the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park, the Shams 1 project and the Al Barakah nuclear plant in the UAE.
The company has also initiated renewable energy projects across 55 countries and in April this year announced its first solar park partnership in Mexico.
As an Emirati brand, Ducab is proudly aligned with ‘Operation 300bn’, the UAE’s national strategy to increase the industrial sector’s contribution to GDP from US$36.23 billion to US$81.74 billion by 2031.
Dubai’s population benefit from 2.1 million smart electricity and water meters, representing a ten-fold increase over a period of seven years, Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) has announced.
The authority said the number of smart meters has increased from 200,000 in the first phase which was completed in January 2016 to 2.1 million meters currently, adding that the stepped-up deployment of smart metres is part of its efforts to develop smart and advanced infrastructure in accordance with the highest international standards.
“DEWA is working to provide an advanced infrastructure to manage facilities and services through smart and interconnected systems that use technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), block chain, and the Internet of Things (IoT), among others. Smart meters provide many advantages for customers to control their consumption proactively and digitally without contacting DEWA, in addition to transforming Dubai into the smartest and happiest city in the world,” said HE Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, MD and CEO of DEWA.
Smart meters enable customers to benefit from the Smart Living initiative launched by DEWA, which helps them monitor their consumption independently. Customers can log onto their DEWA accounts through the website and smart app, view their dashboard to monitor their consumption, and learn about tariff slabs for customers in the residential sector. Customers can also benefit from the initiative by comparing their consumption with similar homes, to help them manage their consumption.
Solutions-focused climate education imperative in shaping MENA’s sustainable future
The impact of climate change has never been more apparent, with the UN identifying it as the biggest existential threat modern humans have ever faced. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has similarly warned it is now “code red” for humanity and that only drastic carbon emission reductions will prevent environmental disaster. While it’s true that the effects of climate change will be felt globally, research shows that the MENA region will be particularly vulnerable, warming at twice the global average, and projected to be up to 4°C warmer by 2050.
Governments from across the region are responding in kind, seen in the recent wave of ambitious sustainability targets and strategies, such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman, and Israel’s commitment to net zero by 2050, the Middle East Green Initiative (MGI) and the Sustainable Development Strategy in Egypt.
To make this net-zero vision a reality, countries in the MENA region rely on the participation and innovation of those within the public and private sectors, who are now recognising sustainability as a business and social imperative. According to a recent IBM study, more than half (52%) of the CEOs in the region now place sustainability as a top priority for their companies, up by 22% from 2021. There is, of course, an economic drive to this, too, with projections that the implementation of sustainable practices in the region could result in US$3 trillion in economic growth and more than one million “future-proof” jobs by 2030.
When it comes to the kind of sustainable development required for societal transformation, knowledge is key, and tangible, solutions-focused education is an essential component of this. In keeping with the MENA’s vision for a more sustainable future, academic institutions in the region are responding by offering more programmes focused on sustainability to embolden the next generation of leaders to become agents of change.
The academic programmes building a more sustainable future
An increasing number of academic institutions across the MENA region, from Cairo to Abu Dhabi, now offer programmes dedicated to sustainable development, management, and policy. Many of these programmes encourage students to explore sustainability through a multidisciplinary lens.
The American University in Cairo (AUC) is one of the universities pioneering sustainability in academia. Through the Center for Applied Research on the Environment and Sustainability (CARES), the university offers a Graduate Diploma and MSc in Sustainable Development and a new Water, Energy, Food Technologies Professional Diploma, which is about to see its first cohort of graduates. The master’s course began in 2013 and was the first of its kind in the region to incorporate three pillars: environment, society, and economy, bringing together four different schools for a more holistic approach to programme content.
The diploma, meanwhile, was developed after identifying a gap in the market with regard to practical knowledge related to water, energy, and food technology. Muhammed Khaled, the Operations Manager at CARES, explained that the diploma aims to equip students, many of whom have their own businesses and a background in engineering or agriculture, with hands-on learning to implement sustainable resource management. Speaking about some of the challenges facing the development and expansion of sustainability programmes, Maissa Khattab, the Programme Coordinator for the graduate programme, said there’s a “supply, demand and awareness trifecta.”
That said, Khattab commented that the academic programmes thus far have been a great success, with the vast majority of graduates entering careers related to sustainable development.
Abu Dhabi University is another institution prioritising embedding ESG knowledge within higher education. It offers several courses addressing sustainability from social, economic, and environmental perspectives, whether mass communication, business, and economics, or health and safety and AI.
Speaking to ESG Mena, Prof Sherine Farouk, Associate Provost for Academic Projects, said that embedding sustainability into higher education is “more important today than ever before in history.” She continued: “Through impactful research, embedding sustainability into courses, launching relevant initiatives, and organising events that promote sustainability and increase awareness about sustainability practices, the university ensures that it plays an active role in producing knowledge and developing skills that support sustainable development.”
The impact of the university’s research on sustainability is reflected in its recent award of 11 patents, including in sustainable energy, quantum computing, and the application of nanotechnology to water filtration.
Similarly, its commitment to sustainability is seen in its housing of the Sustainable Development Venture Lab.
Commenting on the university’s sustainability focus, ADU Provost Prof. Thomas Hochstettler commented: “Abu Dhabi University stands second to none in the practical application of the principle of sustainability in its curriculum, in its research agenda, and in its outreach efforts within the community.
“As an integral part of our community, ADU supports in every way it can those activities and initiatives that serve to expand awareness of sustainability as a priority for all of us, even as we undertake to perpetuate the wonderful environment of which we are all the beneficiaries.”
Embedding an ESG mindset in MENA’s youth
When it comes to sustainability education, change is on the horizon as schools in the region begin to adopt sustainability into their curriculums as a high priority, with teachers leading the way.
A global survey conducted by UNESCO and Education International, for example, found that 90% of the 58,000 teachers polled believe climate education is important, and many are now demonstrating this in the classroom. Teach For Lebanon is one of the organisations assisting teachers with this by training fellows and developing contextualised climate education modules. CARES is also contributing in this area, launching the EduCamp project back in 2010, which targets public schools to introduce Education for Sustainable Development (ESD) with sustainability kits and educational and capacity-development activities. It also has a number of community development projects, which, through targeting children from primary to high school age with small sustainability projects, encourages the development of an ESG mindset early on.
The UAE is a driving force here, too. Fairgreen International School in Dubai is a prime example of the new wave of institutions placing sustainability at the heart of education to ensure students make a positive impact on the world as ambassadors of sustainable development. As Director Edward Green explains, the school aims to create students that are “globally aware and socially responsible.”
ESG education as global priority
Academic institutions are the engine of transformation when it comes to delivering sustainable development goals, and there is undoubtedly a global drive to expand academic offerings and efforts in this area. In France, there’s a recognition that higher educational institutions have a major role to play in the transition towards sustainability. Likewise, in UK universities, there is an increasing focus on contributing to sustainable development through not only formal and informal curriculums but also through initiatives, with universities becoming “living labs” for sustainability.
Back in 2013, a study conducted by the National Union of Students (NUS) and Higher Education Academy (HEA) found that more than 80% of students supported sustainable development being actively promoted and incorporated by UK universities.
Since then, UK institutions have responded to this demand by offering a wide selection of sustainability courses and embedding Education for Sustainable Development into academic programmes. While specialist sustainability courses are now widely accessible across the region, institutions such as Edinburgh University offer university-wide programmes like the “Sustainability and Social Responsibility” course.
This course, available to all students at Edinburgh University, draws on the expertise of staff from right across the university and beyond and, through bringing together students from different disciplines, levels, and backgrounds, encourages the development of sustainable solutions to complex issues. There are also a number of collaborative efforts between international universities driving forward change. The Dubai-Edinburgh Sustainability Institute, for example, is a sustainability centre focused on innovation in environmental research, aimed at becoming a powerhouse for sustainable development, research, and innovation that prioritises economic and social welfare alongside the environment.
Similarly, Abu Dhabi University has teaching and research partnerships with institutions across Australia, Europe, North America, and East Asia, which Dr. Farouk said helps the university “to make a global impact” through cutting-edge research.
Positioning MENA to lead by example
Climate change requires a global response, and education plays a key role in finding solutions and driving the transition towards a more sustainable future. It’s no wonder then that education serves as a key pillar of the Action for Climate Empowerment agenda plan agreed to during COP27. Sustainability is indeed becoming an increasing priority for governments throughout the MENA region, and last year’s COP, despite its failures, saw a number of firsts, including the promising introduction of a Climate Education Hub for the first time.
So, progress, albeit slow, is happening. Considering these factors and the sustainability leadership shown by academic institutions in the region, it seems inevitable that the MENA’s sustainability and ESG programme offerings will diversify and expand. Moreover, the lead-up to COP28 in Dubai presents the perfect opportunity to ramp up sustainability education efforts and offerings in the region and position the MENA to lead by example.
Stc Bahrain, Trafco Group start partnership to support “Trees for Life” Campaign
stc Bahrain has partnered with Trafco Group to support its ongoing “Trees for Life” campaign.
The partnership is part of stc Bahrain’s commitment to preserve the environment and combat climate change by increasing the number of green spaces in Bahrain, in line with the Kingdom’s 2035 vision to double the number of trees. It also aims to reduce desertification, address increasingly high temperatures and promote environmental awareness and air quality enhancement in Bahrain.
Under the partnership, Trafco has pledged to plant 3,000 trees across various locations in the Kingdom.
Launched in 2021 in collaboration with the Supreme Council for Environment and the Ministry of Municipalities Affairs and Urban Planning, stc Bahrain’s “Trees for Life” campaign aims to plant 50,000 trees by the end of 2022.
The UAE is set to draw the world’s attention in 2023 with its efficiency in climate change policy and sustainability as the country is preparing to host the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28).
A leader in decarbonisation in the Middle East, the UAE is the first country in the region to sign the UN Paris Agreement and the first country in the region to commit to net zero carbon emissions by 2050, as part of its “UAE Net Zero 2050” strategic initiative announced in October 2021.
The UAE has cemented its position as an investment bright hub for companies operating in the low carbon space, with significant local growth opportunities in areas such as alternative fuels production, smart city development and renewable energy technology.
More needs to be done
While these factors have helped the UAE become a leader in sustainability-related investment, the UAE’s broader ESG-related regulations have not kept pace. The UAE currently lags global leaders such as the EU, the UK and the US with regard to ESG reporting requirements for companies and ESG-related taxonomies.
That being said, the UAE authorities will likely make significant progress implementing new ESG regulations in 2023, galvanised by the impending November-December COP28 event.
A dive into UAE’s three-pronged roadmap for ESG regulations
The UAE’s strategy towards ESG regulation is being coordinated by the Sustainable Finance Working Group (SFWG), which was established in 2019 and is coordinated by the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) and the Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA).
The SFWG released a statement in 2021 outlining a roadmap for sustainable finance in the country, including plans for ESG regulations. It is a three-pronged strategy based around disclosure, governance and taxonomy, as summarised below.
The SFWG published the “2022 Public Statement on Collaboration on Sustainable Finance in the UAE” in November 2022, which outlined the ongoing efforts and progress made with the roadmap. Much of the progress registered over the last year has related to benchmarking exercises and gathering information on international standards and best practices. The most concrete progress in implementing new ESG policies thus far has been with regard to “Strengthening sustainability disclosure”. This has been driven by the UAE’s stock exchanges.
Stock exchange initiatives driving ESG disclosure
Stock exchanges have been the main driver of greater ESG disclosure requirements in the UAE thus far. Joint stock companies listed on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) and Dubai Financial Market (DFM) are mandated to publish ESG reports as a condition of listing. This has been the case since the 2021 UAE Federal Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) Circular No. 326.
These stock exchange initiatives in the UAE have been supported by the UN Sustainable Stock Exchanges Initiative (SSE), of which both the ADX and DFM are members. The SSE has been a powerful tool for developing and implementing ESG reporting requirements across the world in recent years. The SSE provides a model guidance template for exchanges to begin developing their own guidance, as well as bespoke technical assistance and advisory services to stock exchanges. In September 2015, when the Sustainable Stock Exchange launched its model guidance for exchanges, fewer than 10% of the world’s stock exchanges were providing guidance on reporting ESG information for their market. As of October 2022, 67 of the 120 global exchanges tracked by the Sustainable Stock Exchange had written ESG reporting guidance.
Looking to the wider GCC region, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have all also adopted ESG guidance in their stock exchanges. All of these stock exchanges have aligned with global reporting benchmarks such as GRI (Global Reporting Initiative), SASB (Sustainability Accounting Standards Board) and the TCFD (Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures).
What’s next in the UAE ESG regulatory space?
Development of the UAE’s Sustainable Finance Taxonomy will likely become the key focus of ESG regulations going into 2023.
Sustainability taxonomy would classify activities and entities according to their level of sustainability. Such taxonomy is essential for development of the sustainable finance industry in the UAE. In November 2022, the ADGM and FSRA published plans to significantly expand the number of sustainable finance products available on the ADX. However, development of products such as an “ADGM Green Fund” and “ADGM green bonds” will only be possible with a complementary taxonomy for deciding which firms and activities qualify for these green designations.
According to the SFWG’s updated November 2022 roadmap, the design of taxonomy for the UAE will be “informed by a survey, benchmarking of other live taxonomies and insights from third party experts”. In short, the taxonomy remains in the consultation phase and does not have a concrete date for finalisation. However, significant progress is expected by the COP28 conference at the end of 2023.
Benefits of expanding ESG regulations
Development of ESG disclosure regulations in the UAE will help future-proof investment in the region from impending ESG regulations in major economies including the EU, US and UK.
A pipeline of regulations will increasingly require firms operating in these economies to measure and report on the ESG profile of their international activities. Among others, these regulations include the EU’s Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR), the US’ Climate Disclosure Bill and the UK’s Sustainability Disclosure Requirements.
By increasing local reporting of such ESG metrics by local firms, the UAE authorities are reducing the risk that emissions data gaps deter US firms from investing in the UAE or partnering with UAE-based firms.
Source: Scale Of Earth With C02 On One Side, And Fresh Leaves On The Other by sirinapa wannapat from NounProject.com
NWTN Inc. has recently announced that it delivered 20 range-extended electric vehicles (R-EEVs) to M93 CAR RENTAL L.L.C at its newly constructed facility in the Khalifa Economic Zones Abu Dhabi (KEZAD).
The delivery marks the start of NWTN’s plan to provide the UAE market with a range of innovative products and solutions to promote the region’s transformation to sustainable energy, according to the company.
The vehicle’s range-extended technology overcomes the problems of limited charging facilities in the UAE and the long distances often travelled in the country. The 20 R-EEVs were the first batch of vehicles to be delivered to local clients within coming months.
“This is the first time we adopt new energy vehicles into our operation fleet, we are so excited about it. This is in line with the green energy transformation initiatives of our country, and we are very proud to be an active part of it,” said Shahram Parvizi, Chairman and CEO of M93 CAR RENTAL.
The KEZAD assembly facility is NWTN’s first facility in the UAE. The facility will enable NWTN to conduct semi-knockdown production with a greater proportion of software and hardware localization and upgrades to meet the local market needs. The KEZAD assembly facility is currently in the final phase of installing equipment and conducting trial operations, and is expected to be fully operational in the first quarter of 2023.
MILAN- Net-zero commitments are all the rage. Countries, companies, and others worldwide have committed to eliminating their net greenhouse-gas emissions by a particular date – for some, as early as 2030. But net-zero targets are not tantamount to limiting global warming to the Paris climate agreement’s goal of 1.5° Celsius – or any particular level of warming, for that matter. It is the path to net-zero emissions that makes all the difference.
This is well understood among experts. A 2021 report by the International Energy Agency, for example, charts a detailed path, divided into five-year intervals, toward achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 – and giving the world “an even chance of limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5°C.” The most striking feature of this analysis, at least to me, is the magnitude of the decline that is required by 2030: roughly eight billion tons of fossil-fuel-based emissions, taking us from the 34 gigatons carbon dioxide today to 26 Gt.
To achieve this, emissions would have to decline by 5.8% per year. If the global economy grows at a conservatively estimated annual rate of 2% over that period, the global economy’s carbon intensity (CO2 emissions per $1,000 of GDP) would need to decline by 7.8% per year. While carbon intensity has been declining over the last 40 years, the trend has been nowhere near this rate: from 1980 to 2021, carbon intensity fell by just 1.3% per year, on average.
That rate was not high enough to keep CO2 emissions anywhere near constant, let alone cause them to decline. In fact, with global GDP growth exceeding the rate of carbon-intensity decline by about two percentage points, emissions roughly doubled during that period. One reason is precious little effort was made to reduce carbon intensity for most of that time. The decline that occurred was largely a byproduct of emerging economies becoming wealthier. (More developed economies have lower carbon intensities.)
To be sure, as climate change gained more attention from policymakers, the rate of decline did accelerate, averaging 1.9% per year since 2010. And with supply-side constraints now encumbering the global economy – annual growth could well run at just 2% in the next few years – a modest further reduction in carbon intensity could be enough to put the global economy at or near the peak of its total CO2 emissions. Higher global growth might not even set back efforts to reduce the economy’s carbon intensity, if it is fueled by the proliferation of digital technologies.
An emissions peak would be an important milestone. But unless it was followed immediately by a sharp decline, we would still be pumping some 34 Gt of CO2 into the atmosphere each year. While the IEA report does not address what would happen if we fell significantly short of the first two interim targets (2025 and 2030), one can probably assume that it will be next to impossible to avoid crossing the 1.5ºC threshold.
We have the tools to reach the IEA’s targets. As the report makes clear, no new technological breakthroughs are needed in the first decade. Moreover, the costs do not appear to be prohibitive. The prices of wind and solar energy, for example, have declined substantially in recent years. But there would have to be huge changes in almost every corner of the global economy, and those changes do not appear to be occurring nearly as fast as the IEA timeline would demand.
The sobering fact is that the IEA report’s target of 26 Gt of CO2 by 2030 is not within reach, because the global economy’s carbon intensity is declining at barely a quarter of the required rate. A sharp discontinuity in this variable is possible, and perhaps some would argue that 26 Gt remains a useful aspirational target. But it does not seem particularly realistic.
Is it better to cling to an unattainable target, because it represents the best path for people and the planet, or revise that goal to something more feasible? Can continuing to tout an unrealistic goal hamper progress, as people become demotivated or simply stop viewing the effort as credible? Or is it worse to acquiesce to the consequences of abandoning the ambitious path, including the risk of crossing irreversible tipping points?
Whichever route the world chooses, the challenge will remain the same: reduce CO2 emissions dramatically – and fast. Of course, that is easier said than done. The world economy comprises 195 countries with different cultures and political systems and at different stages of economic development, as well as countless businesses of all sizes and types, and eight billion individuals. Complicating matters further, the widespread distributional effects of both action (rapid energy transitions) and inaction (climate change) are difficult to address, especially in international negotiations.
But there are ways to simplify the challenge. Half of global greenhouse-gas emissions come from just seven economies: China, the United States, the European Union, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, and Russia. The G20 economies account for 70%. A concerted and coordinated effort in these large economies would make a material difference in emissions trajectories and, perhaps more important, generate the technologies and management approaches that will be needed to reach the net-zero goal.
By Michael Spence
© Project Syndicate, 2023. www.project-syndicate.org