The International Energy Agency (IEA) has published its Electricity Mid-Year Update – July 2024, which features the latest data for 2023, new 2024 data and 2025 forecasts for global electricity demand, supply by fuel type, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the power sector.
Over the 2024-2025 forecast period of the report, the IEA outlines that global electricity consumption is expected to increase at the fastest pace in years, driven by robust economic growth, intense heatwaves and continued electrification worldwide.
It outlines that the 4 per cent growth in 2024 is the highest since 2007 and that this is expected to continue in 2025, with growth also at 4 per cent.
The report notes that in the first half of 2024, heatwaves elevated electricity demand and strained power grids.
Indeed, with ongoing record-breaking global temperatures and severe heat waves, the report highlights that countries have witnessed surging peak loads due to the increased need for cooling.
Further, it outlines that as more households begin to purchase ACs, the impact will grow “substantially,” especially in emerging economies. Implementing higher efficiency standards for air conditioning will be “crucial” to mitigate the impact of increased cooling demand on power systems, it says.
Alongside ACs, the report also details how the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has put the electricity consumption of data centres in focus.
It notes that in many regions, historical estimates of data centres’ electricity consumption are “hampered” by a lack of reliable data.
“At the same time, future projections include a very wide range of uncertainties related to the pace of deployment, the diverse and expanding applications of AI, and the potential for energy efficiency improvements,” the report reads.
On clean energy sources, the report notes that despite this uptick in electricity use, solar PV alone is expected to meet roughly half of the growth in global electricity demand to 2025.
Together with wind power generation, solar PV will make up almost 75 per cent of the increase, the IEA says.
Moreover, global electricity generation from solar PV and wind is expected to surpass that from hydropower in 2024.
Looking ahead, the share of renewables in global electricity supply is projected to reach 35 per cent in 2025, according to the IEA report.
However, despite renewables growth, the report warns that an increase in electricity consumption, particularly in China and India, is resulting in the use of more coal-fired generation to meet demand.
Meanwhile, its 2025 forecast sees global CO2 emissions from electricity generation remaining broadly on a plateau.
The slight increase in power sector emissions in 2024 is expected to be followed by a decrease of less than 1 per cent in 2025.
This, it says, will be driven by a modest fall in coal-fired output due to further expansion of clean energy sources and the continued decline in oil-fired generation.
Read the full report here.
