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Seventy-two countries are facing an 8,700 terawatt-hour (TWh) “green power gap,” says a new report by The Rockefeller Foundation. 

According to the report, that gap, affecting 3.8 billion people across Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Middle East, is three times what currently exists in “energy-poor” countries today.

“The fate of 3.8 billion people’s lives and the planet itself will depend on whether we can close the Green Power Gap,” said Dr. Rajiv J. Shah, President of The Rockefeller Foundation. 

Emissions Implications of the Green Power Gap 

This report echoes the findings of the International Renewable Energy Agency’s (IRENA) Renewable Capacity report in March, which found that while 2023 set records for renewables deployment, growth is unevenly distributed across the world. 

Last year, for example, Africa saw just a 4.6 per cent increase in renewables capacity, reaching a total capacity of 62 GW.

This figure stands in line with the continent’s broader energy challenges. Indeed, the Rockefeller Foundation outlines that of the 72 “energy-poor” countries, more than half are in Africa, while nearly a quarter are in Asia.

However, energy demands are growing—and quickly. 

If energy-poor countries continue on the pathway emerging economies have followed since 1970, the report forecasts that they will nearly quadruple their electricity usage by 2050.

The Foundation warns against a scenario in which energy-poor countries develop with fossil fuels, outlining that even if advanced and emerging economies reach net zero by 2050 and 2060, respectively, the world will still exceed 2°C of warming and fail climate goals.

Yet, 90 per cent of global renewable capacity additions occurred in advanced economies and China last year, meaning that a third of the world received the benefits of nearly all renewable energy investments. 

This, the report says, is reflected in emissions trends.

While energy emissions in advanced economies fell by 4.5 per cent in 2023, global emissions rose by 1.1 per cent. 

“While an energy transition is already taking hold in many advanced and emerging markets, far too many people in Africa are being left behind,” said William Asiko, Vice President and head of The Rockefeller Foundation’s Africa Regional Office.

Two Degrees “in Reach,” but Presents Challenges

The report outlines that reducing global emissions enough to achieve the 1.5°C threshold looks “increasingly unrealistic,” and this conclusion has become increasingly dominant in climate conversations. 

Earlier this year, it was announced that the world breached 1.5°C for an entire year for the first time, while last month witnessed three of the hottest days on record consecutively. 

Amid these record-breaking temperatures, In May, a survey by The Guardian of hundreds of the world’s top climate scientists found that experts forecast that the worst is yet to come. 

Indeed, 80 per cent, all from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), projected 2.5C of global heating, and nearly half anticipate “at least” 3C (5.4F).

Only 6 per cent of those surveyed thought that the 1.5C (2.7F) limit would be met.

In contrast, the Foundation’s report says that keeping planetary warming “well below” 2 degrees “remains within reach” but still “presents challenges,” and after wealthy countries have largely spent the world’s carbon budget, the pathway to an equitable and sustainable energy future “looks narrower than ever.”

By 2050, the report says that energy-poor countries will need to deploy clean energy assets capable of generating 8,700 terawatt-hours of power per year—roughly twice the United States’ total annual generation.

Pathways to Close the Gap

Against this backdrop of urgency, the report says there are reasons to be optimistic about filling the gap. 

Indeed, it notes that renewable energy tech is now cheaper, more accessible and deploying “faster than ever.”

Solar PV, it says, is “outperforming” expectations and being deployed faster than any power generation tech in history.

That said, it notes that there will not be a “one-size-fits-all” solution to scaling up renewable energy in energy-poor countries, and the final balance can “and should” look different from case to case, with a “blend” of technology.

The report also highlights these countries’ vast renewable energy resources, including solar. 

“These 72 countries have superior renewable resources when compared to countries that are already deploying renewables at scale,” said Dr. Joseph Curtin, Managing Director of The Rockefeller Foundation’s Power and Climate Team and co-author of the report. 

Indeed, even in its lowest solar production month, the average energy-poor country still achieves 75 per cent of its maximum potential solar output, the report notes. 

Complementary renewable energy resources, such as wind, hydro, and geothermal, are also available, creating the potential for diverse, flexible power systems.

“…we believe that there is a ‘green window of opportunity’ based on existing power system assets and the availability of renewable energy resources in Asia,” said Deepali Khanna, Vice President and head of The Rockefeller Foundation’s Asia Regional Office.

The report subsequently outlines four possible pathways to “clean energy abundance”:

• Gradually greening the grid: This pathway is appropriate in countries with developed grids and “considerable centralised fossil fuel generation assets,” the report outlines. It relies on existing grid infrastructure and requires integrating widespread deployment of clean generation and battery storage technologies within the grid while phasing out fossil fuel-based generation.
• Mixed grid renewable evolution: This pathway is appropriate in countries with limited grid and generation capacity but higher population density, the report explains. It involves building out a power system centred around renewable generation and storage solutions, bypassing heavy investment in fossil-fuel-fired power plants.
• Decentralised solar storage: According to the report, this pathway is appropriate for countries with limited grid developments but excellent solar resources and limited other renewable energy options. Distributed renewable technologies, including smaller-scale battery storage, offer an alternative, lower-cost pathway, it says. 
• Decentralised renewable mix: This pathway favours those where a diversity of high-quality renewable resources exists. It relies heavily on decentralised systems, but here, they are powered by various renewable energy sources, such as solar, hydro, wind, and geothermal, for greater flexibility. 

The report notes that knowing what’s necessary is the “first step” in making it possible. 

However, facilitating change requires the right combination of technologies, financing, and policies to fall into place, it says. 

“History makes clear that people and countries will pursue opportunity regardless of the climate consequences,” said Dr. Shah. “The only way to achieve the world’s climate goals is scaling solutions and mobilizing the capital needed to ensure 3.8 billion people have enough clean electricity to lift up their lives and livelihoods.”

“Closing the Green Power Gap is in every country’s interest,” added Dr. Curtin. 

By Madaline Dunn, Editor, ESG Mena.